Nfl Moneyline Betting Strategy

Are you looking to win more money with your DFS lineups? Below I've listed 10 DFS NFL strategies and tips for GPP tournaments. This DraftKings NFL strategy guide was created with DraftKings in mind, but most of the strategies work for other sites as well.

• #1 NFL Betting Strategy – Money/Bankroll Management When you are betting on the NFL season you will want to set aside a certain amount of money to bet with that you can afford to lose, known as your 'bankroll'. I suggest you either make a weekly bankroll, monthly bankroll, or full season bankroll (I.
• It will break down the basics of NFL betting, from various types of bets, to strategy, to tips on how to predict trends and think independently. If you heed this advice and weigh your options and bankroll carefully, you could turn a consistent profit throughout the 2020 NFL season.

In addition to DFS sites, we also have a number of online sportsbooks you can check out that offer real money sports betting just like DraftKings. You can see those sports betting sites here.

#1 – Learn The Scoring System

Everyone has NFL betting advice and tips. What you need is a NFL betting strategy, and you need one that works for you. Betting on ufc fights. Heed these rules, do your research and develop your own NFL betting strategy. When learning how to bet on football, it's important to keep it simple. Don't bet on too many games at once and stay away from the prop bets.

You probably have a general idea of how fantasy scoring works, but every daily fantasy site will have different scoring in place. At DraftKings players are given a full point per each catch or reception. This is known as a 1 PPR league.

This means you want to look at stats such as targets and receptions when choosing your players. A receiver who catches 2 catches for 100 yards isn't as valuable as a receiver who catches 10 catches for 100 yards.

You should also take this into consideration when choosing Running Backs, as a back who catches a lot of passed can be very valuable.

#2 – Flex Position Should be a Receiver

In most weeks picking an extra wide receiver at the Flex position will be the best choice, as they have bigger upsides overall than Tight Ends or Running Backs. I wouldn't be against an elite catching TE like Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski though.

#3 – Use 'Late Swap' To Your Advantage

DraftKings allows you to swap out players right up until their kickoff, while other sites will lock roster at the first game. I think late swap is a great option because a lot of times, across all sports, players will be game time decisions – and nothing sucks more than rostering an injured player.

The first way to utilize late swap is to make sure you're putting the player with the latest start time in your flex position, that way if you have to swap that player out you can swap him with any of the skill positions. For example, lets say you have Antonio Brown in your lineup and he's playing in the Monday Night game. Put him in your flex position, so that if say he came down with the flu Monday morning you would be able to choose a WR, RB or TE in that Monday Night game to take his spot, instead of being forced to pick a WR.

The second way to utilize late swaps in DraftKings in a strategy is to change the player based on how you're doing in the DraftKings contest. Lets say that you are far out of the money in a contest but you have a Monday Night player in your lineup. If you think they are going to be highly owned and you won't be able to make up enough ground even if he does have a productive night, you could try swapping him out for a player that will have very low ownership hoping for a breakout performance from that player.

It works the other way too. Lets you are safely in the money and don't think you have an opportunity to move up big time. One player in your lineup is playing Monday Night that you chose as a 'risky', contrarian pick. Football strategy book. You could swap that player out for a more consistent fantasy scorer to hopefully get the cash and move onto the next one.

#4 – Correlated Plays

You are almost always going to want to match your QBs with one of their targets because there is a correlation between the points your QB will get and the points their receivers will get. If you get a big game out of your QB it is likely that your receiver will also have a good game. You are increasing risk doing this a bit, but the upside is definitely worth it for GPP tournaments.

#5 – Use Vegas Lines

Vegas bookmakers and the sharp bettors that move the lines know what they are doing and you should always be looking into their totals, team total and even spreads when doing your weekly research.

If one team has a team total of 27.5 points set for a week, there is a good chance that the players on that team are going to score more fantasy points than a team with a team total of 14.5. Of course, pricing at DraftKings will reflect that, but you should always be paying attention to the lines.

Not only opening lines but also line movement. There has been a correlation between line movement and expected fantasy points. If a team total moves from 23.5 to 25 on a Sunday morning, you may get some value from players on that team. Or if you're debating between two defenses and one of their opponents team total moves down a point, you can use that as your deciding factor.

#6 – Look Into The Defensive Schemes They Are Facing

I read an interesting article over at FantasyLabs that shows how QBs and WRs beat their expected fantasy points vs 3-4 defenses, while RBs beat their expected points vs 4-3 defenses. You can take it a step further and watch how certain offenses fare against the different defensive fronts and factor that into your plays as well. This is an advanced strategy, but something I will be looking at this year for sure.

#7 – Low Ownership Players?

One popular topic with big tournaments is the strategy of picking players that are going to have a low ownership. This makes sense because the lower the ownership of each player in your lineup, the more people you have an advantage over if that player performs well.

With that said it isn't a great strategy to just compile your lineup with a bunch of players you think will have low ownership – you are still trying to put together a team that will get you the most points.

An interesting article I found at FantasyLabs took a look at the NFL Millionaire contest winners from last year at DraftKings and the ownership percentages of their lineups. The table showed that most of the Millionaire winners had at least a few players in their lineup that were highly owned, and a majority of them had at least two players that were 20%+ owned. Having low ownership players in your lineup can be good, but don't do it just because you've heard of that strategy. Sometimes there is obvious value out there, and even if the player is going to be highly owned you still should have him in your lineup.

Nfl Moneyline Betting Strategy

#8 – Players With Decreased Salary Costs Can Be Valuable

Sometimes DraftKings will drop the price of an NFL player who isn't playing well, and a lot of the time that can add value to that player – as long as that players role hasn't diminished.

For example, let's say that Matt Forte has had a three games in a row where his catches are down, he hasn't been rushing for too many yards and he hasn't gotten into the endzone. DraftKings drops his salary from $7,800 to $7,200 for the next week. At that price he might now have quite a bit of value, as long as those three games we just an anomaly.

#9 – Don't Be Afraid To Take Elite Players vs Good Defenses

Elite players often shine vs any defense, even the best in the game. Taking an elite player vs a really good defense can be a good way to find an elite player with a lot of upside potential with low ownership.

#10 – Use DFS Tools To Your Advantage

Nfl Moneyline Betting Strategy 2019

With DFS continuing to grow there are a lot of great tools out there to help you put together an optimal line up and find solid value players.

Sports Betting Sites To Consider

If you're interested in getting started with sports betting, here is a list of sites that you can deposit real money with right now:

—

If you found these DFS NFL Strategies helpful feel free to share the article with your sports betting friends. Good luck with your contests!

Legendary coach Vince Lombardi's philosophy was 'Freedom within discipline.' While others invented complicated playbooks with dozens of formations, Lombardi's plays were coded in simple math like '54' and '43.' His Green Bay Packers would run the same plays over and over. But athletes were allowed to think on their feet and adjust during the action to whatever the defense was doing.

Successful NFL betting must be built on a similar approach. Gamblers can each develop their own gambling style based on bankroll, budget, preference, and expertise. But to ignore time-honored maxims of NFL betting is to simply throw money away. Bettors must know and understand every type of wager before choosing the right one, and they must acquire in-depth knowledge of sportsbook strategy before deciding which tactical tenet to follow when placing the next bet.

Scroll through LegitGamblingSites.com's NFL betting strategy guide for an overview of the types of odds, betting markets, and live wagers offered on the National Football League. We'll provide background information and a few tips for winning more than you lose with smart bets in every category.

Types of NFL Betting

Bookies have not dreamed up their last fancy new NFL betting market. But many types of NFL betting odds have been around for decades and aren't going away anytime soon. Enjoy a primer on the basic categories and a few helpful links.

Moneylines in NFL Betting

Moneylines offer a bet on which team will win the game. NFL moneylines are usually expressed in fractions relating to $100. Odds of (+400) promise a payoff of $400 on a winning $100 wager, while a (-300) moneyline means the gambler must wager $300 to potentially win $100.

NFL Point Spreads

Point spreads have been the daily bread of NFL betting since the early 20th century. Betting against the spread (or 'ATS') means picking a team to prevail given points spotted to the underdog. Favorites must win by more than the spread to cash in the bet slip. A bet on the underdog wins if the team wins outright or loses by less than the spread.

NFL Point Totals

Often referred to as the Over/Under or 'O/U,' a point total betting market asks the gambler to pick a cumulative point total after 4 quarters that is over or under the total predicted by the sportsbook. If the final score of the game adds up to a sum equal to the O/U line, the wager is a push, and money is returned with no further action.

Proposition Wagers in NFL Betting

Proposition, or 'prop' bets on the NFL involve specific statistical feats or other events that could occur during a game.

Props on regular-season NFL games are usually basic and sports-oriented, such as whether a star running back will gain 100 or more yards in 4 quarters.

Thousands of prop bets are offered by casinos on the Super Bowl, however, and bookies tend to use their imaginations when coming up with prop markets for the Greatest Show on Earth. Super Bowl props can be anything from the number of pass attempts by Aaron Rodgers to the type of outfit worn by a pop singer in the halftime show.

NFL Parlays

A parlay, or 'combo' bet, is a single wager that combines 2 or more individual bets. Parlays offer a much higher payoff than typical spread or O/U markets, but all bets in a parlay must have a winning result for the gamble to pay off. If any picks involved in the parlay lose, the bettor loses the entire wager.

NFL Futures Bets

Guide to NFL Handicapping

Successful NFL betting depends on good handicapping. But what is handicapping, exactly?

Handicapping is not the same as making a prediction. No one can accurately predict final scores over the long term. Instead, handicapping is a process of assigning value to a team going into a contest.

If the bettor concludes that a team's chances of prevailing in a given contest are better than what the moneyline or point spread is factoring in, then a bet on that team carries value. It is more likely to win than to lose. If the team's chances of winning the game (or winning against a point spread) appear worse than the sportsbook's odds are allowing, then betting value is with the opposing team.

Click below for a more in-depth look at NFL handicapping.

Other Key Aspects of NFL Handicapping

The game itself may come down to blocking and tackling, but NFL betting strategy is anything but simple. Key factors include line movement, trends, distinguishing playoff handicapping from regular-season analysis, and of course Super Bowl handicapping.

NFL Betting: Line Movement Analysis

Line movement analysis is the technique of understanding why a moneyline, point spread, or point total has moved from the original lines set by the sportsbook.

A moneyline or a point spread will be adjusted if casinos notice heavy betting action focused on one of the two teams squaring off. Sportsbooks prefer balanced action that assures the house of a profit. However, it is important to determine whether lines are moving due to public bias or actual handicapping factors. An injury to a quarterback should cause a line to move in a logical direction, while a rush of bets on the Dallas Cowboys may cause odds to change for no other reason than the popularity of America's Team.

Angles and Trends in NFL Betting

Analyzing trends is a standard tool of the oddsmaker. For instance, an NFL team might be traveling to play an opponent with a much better record, but historical trends indicate that the former team always plays well at the venue they're visiting. That would cause the game's moneyline to be set much tighter than it would normally be.

Angles and trends can be deceiving, however. Stats such as 'The Eagles are 5-1 in games played in snow in the Central Time Zone' seem valuable but are ultimately meaningless due to the effects of random chance on a small sample-size of outcomes.

Handicapping the NFL Playoffs vs. the Regular Season

Understanding the differences in handicapping the playoffs vs. the regular season is an important step toward having a winning record in your NFL betting hobby.

For instance, players who suffer mild injuries may ride the bench out of caution in Week 7 or Week 10. But a key performer who is nursing a painful but not prohibitive injury will likely be pressed into duty in a postseason contest.

Handicapping the Super Bowl

Nfl Betting Predictions

If handicapped carefully by the NFL betting enthusiast, the Super Bowl can be a profitable gambling opportunity. Millions of people place wagers on the Super Bowl, and the method of 'betting against the public' is never more relevant than in February.

Check out the links below for a more detailed look into NFL betting and handicapping.

Preseason, In-Game, and Halftime Betting

NFL betting on summer preseason games is a vastly different animal than in the autumn and winter. Futures bets may be placed on teams still in training camp, but it's moneyline and point spread betting in which the difference is stark.

Gambling on an NFL team in the preseason can be infuriating due to star players sitting out, coaches calling 'test' plays instead of trying to score, and rookie punters and kickers shanking the football wide of the uprights or out of bounds. However, the preseason can also be a solid betting opportunity for the sports gambler whose knowledge of training camp rosters exceeds his peers.

In-game betting is also known as 'live' or 'in-play' betting. Many sportsbooks offer NFL betting lines that are adjusted during a Sunday contest. If an underdog scores the first 2 touchdowns of the game, the moneyline which was originally set with their opponent as the strong favorite will likely be 'flipped' with the former underdog now the favorite.

Halftime betting gives the bookie and bettor each an opportunity to reconsider the contest for a few minutes before moving forward. A sportsbook may choose to close live betting temporarily while new lines are set with the likely 2nd-half outcome in mind. But the most important halftime adjustments are made in NFL locker rooms.

Take a look at the pages below for more.

Forecasting Lines and Score Prediction

Sportsbooks won't set odds on an upcoming NFL game until both teams have no in-between contests on their schedule. But the savvy sports bettor doesn't let a measly Patriots vs. Jets laugher get in the way of handicapping a solid wager. Gamblers can forecast lines by making educated guesses as to what the moneyline and point spread numbers will be when markets open on Monday afternoon.

Long-term weather forecasts can tighten a moneyline and lower the O/U total. When heavy rain or snow is expected to make handling the football, running routes, and even blocking more difficult, expect bookies and professional handicappers to predict a low-scoring game.

Surf to the link below to read more about how forecasting lines and score prediction can help NFL betting enthusiasts beat the sportsbook.

Turnover Chart and Analysis

Turnover charts help handicappers and bettors analyze which NFL franchises, coaching staffs, and rosters are best at protecting the football and forcing opponents to turn it over.

Over time, a plus-turnover ratio will result in excellent season records and playoff wins. The New England Patriots have a sparkling long-term turnover chart – we rest our case!

Click below for a deeper look into using turnover charts to help produce more NFL betting wins.

Conclusion

We've only scratched the surface of all of the factors weighed into serious NFL handicapping. It's a complicated study for even the dedicated and knowledgeable pro football fan.

But remember, sportsbooks don't have the resources or time to investigate 2-deep roster, statistical trends, and matchups as closely as a determined bettor with a laptop.

Focus on one game at a time and beat the casino's house bookie with in-depth analysis, common sense…and an understanding of handicapping.